HealthTrust Provides Insights from the 2010 Annual ASHA Meeting

The temperatures were frigid at this year’s Annual Meeting, and the outlook for seniors housing was slightly warmer. Marci Rossell, PhD, an economist formerly on CNBC presented an impelling argument that the recession is over but that recovery will be sluggish, in part due to a higher national savings rate (5-6%) and in part due to federal gimmicks that borrowed 2010 activity (home tax credits, cash for clunkers) and used it in 2009. Dr. Rossell then moderated a panel on Capital Markets who suggested that cost of capital may decrease and that REITs are ready to invest.

Alan Plush, MAI, with Steve Monroe led a lively valuation panel covering topics such as:

  • Lack of data points
  • Expected equity returns
  • The appropriate premium or discount for portfolios
  • The future of the entry fee model since the Erickson bankruptcy judge subordinated the interests of secured lenders to the community residents

During the executive board meeting, HealthTrust’s Colleen Blumenthal, Task Force Lead of the State of Senior Housing, presented the progress made with the 2009 edition and goals for the upcoming 2010 edition, including:

  • Increased Concession Analysis
  • Expanded CCRC Operations
  • Board Composition
  • Entrance Fee Refund Analysis
  • Greater Focus on Return on Investment Analysis
  • 1,500 properties
  • 175,000 units
  • 800 same store contributions
  • July release date

HealthTrust, LLC supports the American Seniors Housing Association’s efforts to provide leadership for the seniors housing industry through completing research projects (State of Seniors Housing, investment studies and occasional white papers), supporting the seniors housing PAC and serving on the executive board. For more information about ASHA, please visit www.seniorshousing.org.




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